Keeping score - review of 2025 predictions
2025 was an extremely eventful year that presented a lot of twists and turns. In January, I predicted five major themes and events that would take place this year. Here’s how I did.
Dear Readers,
As the year is drawing to a close, your social feeds and inboxes are filled with reviews of 2025 and predictions for the new year. You may have been wondering what is taking your favorite tech and entertainment newsletter this long to join in on the fun. Well, Christmas prep with two kids is part of the answer. The other part is I didn’t feel comfortable calling it a year before the calendar truly turns to 2026. After all, there was (and is) no counting out 2025 and the possibility of this year pulling another rabbit out of its hat at the last minute. Keep in mind, this year was only nine days old when Chinese company Tencent was designated as a military company and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg started to dress like Kendrick Lamar.
The article was titled “Unpacking Zuckerberg’s Midlife Crisis.” There are things money can’t buy after all.
I wonder how many days it’ll be in the new year until we all have a collective “oh shit” moment. I personally hope it’ll be a moment. Dealing with the rapid pace of technological developments and progress is one thing. That’s manageable, even fine. But I think we could all do with less amplitudes of the batshit craziness that’s surrounding all of us.
Before we get to look ahead at 2026, we first need to look in the review mirror. Aside from predictions for the new year and a wrap up of the major headlines of 2025 that moved the worlds of tech and entertainment (be sure to subscribe below to miss these posts coming your way after Christmas), today we’ll take a hard look in the mirror and assess how I did with my predictions for this year.
Santa came bearing gifts in the form of a report card. Without giving too much away before digging into the details, let’s just say it feels like a solid C+ - there’s definitely room for improvement when it comes to my 2026 predictions.
Let’s take a look at the four predictions I made at the beginning of the year plus one late entry.
Prediction #1: The battle for network efficiency
The full body combat in the advertising space between the ad networks and who can provide marketers the most effective and efficient access to the most valuable customers and send them their way was on full display. The winning networks need to internalize unique data to find different and stronger signals to make their ad network the smartest and send the right ad to the right user. I predicted that AppLovin would be active on the M&A front to bolster its capabilities, Chartboost would be spun out of Zynga, Roblox would accelerate its ad platform business, while the TikTok ban would throw a wrench into marketers’ plans and Meta would be the big beneficiary.
What actually happened. AppLovin sold off its entire gaming business to Tripledot but did not make any major acquisitions itself. Chartboost is still a part of Zynga. Roblox made a concerted push with its ad platform though it’s still in its infancy. TikTok wasn’t banned. Unity emerged as a potentially viable competitor to AppLovin with its new ad platform that uses in-game monetization data.
Grade. Directionally right but the specifics didn’t land. C-.
Prediction #2: AI needs different data to overcome its plateau
AI companies still need different and quite frankly all the data they can get to train their models and establish meaningful differentiation against their competitors. But even more than searching for unique data assets this year, AI as a whole seemed like it was looking for a real world use case in order to demonstrate tangible real world impact beyond efficiencies (read: cost savings).
What actually happened. Aside from a number of licensing deals for a variety of data sources and IP, AI players like OpenAI were actively looking to acquire companies that possess unique data. Case in point: the rumored $500m OpenAI was ready to drop on a little known company called Medal, which has amassed a sizeable data asset containing videos of gameplay footage. Instead of joining Sam Altman and team, the founders turned down the offer and spun out a new AI lab called General Intuition, which uses the visual data set to build AI world models. Otherwise the focus for the big AI players seemed to be compute, infrastructure, and the search for a business model to support all of the promise currently baked into the lofty valuations.
Grade. Close but not quite there. B-.
Prediction #3: We’re entering the age of podcasting
On the back of the huge role podcasting played in the US presidential election, I expected new streams of money to flow into the space, both to put $$$ behind advertising and to develop new content formats. I especially anticipated video to play a big role and that YouTube, Netflix, and Spotify would all be involved or ultimately clash over this.
What actually happened. Podcasting is on track to receive more than $5bn in advertising spend this year. While year-over-year growth has slowed down just a little bit and is projected to come in at around 8% this year, video podcasting has exploded with 100% year-over-year growth. Netflix teamed up with Spotify to bring video podcasts into its streaming app while acquiring popular podcasts oftentimes targeted at very specific audiences, like hockey fan favorite Spittin’ Chiclets (a move that in turn will see all of the video podcasts removed from YouTube). Lastly: the Golden Globes announced that the next award ceremony will have a dedicated category for podcasts.
Grade. Bullseye. A.
Prediction #4: The ongoing consolidation of legacy media
Comcast set the tone in 2024 by announcing the spin off of its cable TV assets into a new entity called the Versant Entertainment Group. The expectation was that Warner Bros Discovery would spin off its own cable TV assets, merge them with Versant, and continue the inevitable consolidation in legacy media.
What actually happened. Well. Netflix and Paramount-Skydance decided to both bid for Warner Bros Discovery in a move that would redefine the entertainment landscape forever. This battle for WBD has put the expected consolidation on hold (for now). While Netflix would split the cable TV assets to then likely merge them with Versant, Paramount-Skydance would instead acquire these assets and merge them with their own legacy media networks like CBS. Starz apparently bid $25bn for WBD’s cable assets.
Grade. Big curveball that delayed the inevitable. D+.
Prediction #5: Ubisoft will never be the same again
French gaming darling Ubisoft was in troubled waters going into this year. Missed revenue forecasts, delayed game launches - it looked like the end was near for Ubisoft and it would be taken private via an acquisition from a strategic or private equity group.
What actually happened. Ubisoft is still a publicly traded company. But underneath the surface, it created a new subsidiary that effectively owns all of Ubisoft’s notable franchises and IP - and is in large part financed and controlled by Tencent.
Grade. The patient isn’t dead. But it’s also not the same patient it was before. B.
Overall, I think that means a C+. A solid baseline to improve on - but then again, making predictions isn’t about being right. It’s about starting a conversation.
With that, Merry Christmas! I hope the holidays offer you space to slow down, to reconnect with what energizes you, and to spend time with the people that matter most. Thank you for being part of the Technically Entertaining community, and share the love by spreading the word at the dinner table - or by sending this post to someone in your network using the button below.
The year is quickly coming to a close. While we all deserve some much needed time off, you also deserve to stay in the know and be equipped for the new year. That’s why you’ll still get our 2025 headlines overview, predictions for 2026, and a special edition on the top skill that will set you and your business apart in the new year. Want to share a Christmas gift with me? Subscribe now.